A study conducted by Ovum for the FTTH Council Asia-Pacific predicts that there will be more than 285 million fixed-line broadband subscribers in the region by 2014, of which more than 129 million will be connected via fibre to the premises (fibre to the home, FTTH; or fibre to the business, FTTB). The use of cable modems will also increase over the period, pushing DSL into second place. Ovum forecasts zero compound growth for DSL through 2014.
South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan (all high density markets) had more than 25% FTTH penetration by the end of 2010. While China has almost as many FTTx subscribers as Japan, the size of the market means penetration is still quite low and there is significant growth potential.
Ovum principal analyst Julie Kunstler said "Despite a very low household penetration of only 4%, China will take first place for FTTH/B subscriber base, which will exceed 74 million in 2014, representing almost 60% of the FTTB/H subscriber base in the 16 economies."
Those 16 economies are Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Ms Kunstler added "Varying growth patterns across the different countries in Asia-Pacific are seen, reflecting the diversity of the region. For example, Australia's FTTx CAGR from 2010 to 2014 will be very high (180%) as they are starting from a low base and have plans for significant investment (National Broadband Network), while Japan's growth will be lower (9%) since its existing base is very high."
